HERONG BAI
Research

Economics & Public Policy

Markets, Information, and the Cost of Opportunity

Economics was not a subject on my high-school timetable. I grew up in Ningxia and attend a Chinese public school that follows the national curriculum, where we study nine subjects but have no AP, A-Level, IB, or dedicated economics courses. I first learned economics by working through the Pearson Edexcel International A-Level syllabus myself, and later studied AP Macroeconomics and Microeconomics alongside my regular schoolwork and piano training. I earned a 5 in AP Macroeconomics, a 4 in AP Microeconomics, and an A in AS Economics. What kept me interested was not simply learning another subject outside school. Economics gave me a way to ask questions that were difficult to answer from mathematics alone: why individually reasonable decisions can produce collectively undesirable outcomes, how costs and benefits are distributed, why information changes behavior, and why the same economic shock can be manageable for one family but devastating for another.

My study of microeconomics led me to market structure, barriers to entry, game theory, and the network effects that can make an already successful firm or location even more attractive. Macroeconomics raised a different set of questions about unemployment, inflation, aggregate demand, exchange rates, government spending, and the limits imposed by public budgets. I began to see how the two levels are connected. A technological improvement can increase productivity, but the distribution of that gain depends on who can afford to adopt the technology, who controls market access, and how firms, workers, and governments respond. Greater efficiency does not automatically imply greater equality or greater resilience. These questions eventually became the focus of a team case study on port automation.

Port Automation, Concentration, and Resilience

In a four-person economics case-study team, I worked on the relationship between port automation, shipping-network concentration, and economic resilience, using Shanghai Port as a focal case. Our approach drew on process tracing: rather than treating automation as an isolated technological improvement, we tried to follow the sequence of decisions and incentives through which it might alter a wider transport network. Automated terminals require substantial fixed investment, technical capacity, and organizational coordination. Ports with sufficient capital can potentially reduce delays and improve reliability, while ports with fewer resources may struggle to adopt comparable systems. Shipping companies and alliances then have incentives to direct traffic toward ports that offer more predictable and efficient service. Once traffic begins to concentrate, network effects and further investment may reinforce that advantage. The result can be a system in which many individual decisions are rational, yet the network as a whole becomes increasingly dependent on a smaller number of nodes.

What interested me was the difference between efficiency under ordinary conditions and resilience under disruption. A port that handles enormous volumes efficiently is valuable to the firms using it. But if an entire network increasingly depends on the same hub, a disruption there may affect far more than the port itself. Automation can also change labor demand, bargaining relationships, and the ability of smaller ports to compete. Our project examined this proposed mechanism—capital-intensive adoption, shifts in routing incentives, concentration, and potential systemic exposure—rather than assuming that all automation necessarily produces the same outcome. I was particularly interested in how to separate genuine causal mechanisms from correlations that happen to appear together. The case-study project received a Gold Award and advanced to the next stage of its competition. Its broader questions remain important to me: when does an efficiency gain become a source of dependence, and how should public policy weigh the benefits of scale against the costs of fragility?

Information, Public Trust, and Short-Video Platforms

A different question emerged from watching the growing influence of short-video platforms on public discussion. In China, short videos have become an important way for people to encounter news, health claims, consumer warnings, and explanations of government policy. The speed of distribution is remarkable, but so is the difficulty of establishing what is reliable. I became especially interested in situations where merchants or content producers have a commercial incentive to exaggerate food-safety risks, where an alarming claim spreads more easily than a careful correction, and where people with limited time or access to reliable explanations must make decisions based on incomplete information. I wanted to understand this not simply as a problem of incorrect content, but as a problem of information asymmetry, incentives, and social trust.

I began outlining a project on Information Asymmetry, Social Trust, and Public Communication in the Era of Short Video, using signaling theory, public-choice reasoning, cost-benefit analysis, and game theory. One question was why official institutions sometimes delay a response or communicate ambiguously when a controversy is complicated or politically sensitive. A detailed explanation may be expensive, difficult to deliver, or likely to invite further disagreement. Silence may appear cheaper in the short run, but it can allow uncertainty and distrust to accumulate. I considered a model involving public institutions, audiences, and producers of misleading or strategically framed information, with different incentives and unequal access to facts. I also explored whether independent scholars and subject specialists could help explain complicated policies or evaluate disputed claims in language ordinary viewers could use.

I have not completed an empirical test of this framework, and I would not claim that every delayed response is evidence of a deliberate strategy or that every widely shared claim is misinformation. Those distinctions matter. A future study could compare how audiences respond to silence, brief official denials, evidence-based explanations, and explanations delivered by independent specialists. It would also need to consider whether attempts to tailor explanations to different audiences genuinely improve comprehension or instead risk manipulating what people are allowed to understand. I am interested in the former: explanations that vary in depth and clarity while remaining faithful to the same underlying facts. The larger economic question is how trust, once damaged, changes consumer choices and the cost of governing.

Public Finance and Access to Opportunity

My interest in public finance is more personal. Growing up in northwestern China, I have seen how distance and limited access to specialized services can change the cost of an opportunity. A family may be able to pay a school fee but not the travel and accommodation needed to reach the school. Medical insurance may cover part of a treatment while leaving families to pay for transportation, time away from work, and expenses that are difficult to anticipate. A rural household may work through an entire growing season only to lose much of its crop to hail. The economic effect of a shock cannot be understood solely by looking at its average cost. It matters how much financial room a household had before the shock, whether it can borrow or insure against the loss, and which opportunities disappear when the money has to be spent elsewhere.

I want to study how public budgets can expand meaningful access to education and medical care, particularly for rural families and residents of less-developed regions. In education, I am interested in the fiscal feasibility of extending stronger public support through upper-secondary schooling and improving assistance for vocational and higher education. In health care, I am interested in catastrophic medical expenses, reimbursement for treatment outside one's home region, and the relationship between funding, regulation, and patient protection. Questions of medical accountability, informed consent, adverse-event reporting, and compensation also matter to me because a policy should be judged not only by the number of people formally covered, but by what happens to them when something goes wrong.

I am also interested in a cost that rarely fits neatly into a household budget: time with one's family. Migrant work, long-distance employment, and shift schedules can force people to choose between earning an income and caring for a parent, raising a child, or returning home during an emergency. Policies concerning paid caregiving leave, portable social protection, and access to services across regions therefore have economic consequences extending beyond wage statistics. These questions cannot be resolved simply by demanding greater public spending. Every policy has a funding source, opportunity costs, administrative constraints, and possible unintended consequences. I want to understand how those trade-offs can be evaluated rigorously, and how a policy that appears equitable in the aggregate may affect households with very different resources.

Learning Economics Beyond the Classroom

Alongside independent study, I founded a business society at my school, which grew from two students to more than forty. I also competed in economics with students from other parts of China and abroad. In the National Economics Challenge China Selection, I earned an Individual Gold Award with 440 out of 480 points and led a team to a National Team Silver Award. Our team subsequently received the SUPER ECON! Regional Overall Team Honor at the NEC China Finals. In the International Economics Olympiad China Selection, I received an individual certificate of distinction, while our team earned Silver, placing in the top 15%. These experiences gave me opportunities to argue through economic models with teammates who approached problems differently, but they also made me more aware of how much lies beyond the classroom version of a model.

I am still at an early stage of research. I have studied macroeconomics and microeconomics independently, explored economic mechanisms through case studies, and begun developing questions about public finance, institutional communication, and policy design. I do not yet have a solution to the inequalities I see. I want to learn how to test an argument, measure effects, distinguish causation from coincidence, and confront the costs of policies I might otherwise support too easily. Mathematics has taught me to search for the structure behind a problem. Economics has taught me that when the problem involves people, understanding the structure is only the beginning.

我的高中课表上没有经济学。我在宁夏长大,就读于一所实行国家课程的中国公立学校。我们学习九门学科,但学校没有 AP、A-Level、IB,也没有专门的经济学课程。我最初通过自学培生爱德思国际 A-Level 课程大纲接触经济学,后来又在完成校内学业和钢琴训练的同时,学习了 AP 宏观经济学和微观经济学。我取得了 AP 宏观经济学 5 分、AP 微观经济学 4 分,以及 AS 经济学 A 等级。让我持续投入的,并不只是多学一门学校以外的科目。经济学给了我一种方式,去追问那些仅凭数学难以回答的问题:为什么对个人而言合理的决策,可能带来对整体不理想的结果;成本与收益如何分配;信息为何会改变人的行为;以及为什么同一场经济冲击,对一个家庭来说尚可应对,对另一个家庭却可能是毁灭性的。

学习微观经济学,让我接触到市场结构、进入壁垒、博弈论,以及能使已经成功的企业或地区变得更具吸引力的网络效应。宏观经济学则引出了另一组问题,涉及失业、通货膨胀、总需求、汇率、政府支出,以及公共预算带来的限制。我开始看到这两个层面之间的联系。技术进步可以提高生产率,但收益如何分配,取决于谁有能力采用这项技术、谁掌握市场准入,以及企业、劳动者和政府如何作出反应。效率提高并不自动意味着更加平等,或更有韧性。这些问题最终成为我们关于港口自动化的团队案例研究的核心。

港口自动化、集中化与韧性

在一个四人经济学案例研究团队中,我以上海港为主要案例,研究港口自动化、航运网络集中化与经济韧性之间的关系。我们采用了过程追踪的方法:不把自动化视为一项孤立的技术改进,而是尝试追踪一系列决策与激励,理解它可能如何改变更广泛的运输网络。自动化码头需要大量固定投资、技术能力和组织协调。资金充足的港口可能减少延误、提高可靠性,而资源较少的港口则可能难以采用类似的系统。随后,航运公司和联盟便有动力将运输流量转向服务更加稳定、高效的港口。一旦运输流量开始集中,网络效应和后续投资就可能进一步巩固这种优势。最终可能出现这样一种系统:许多单独的决策都是理性的,整个网络却越来越依赖少数几个节点。

我感兴趣的是正常条件下的效率,与遭遇干扰时的韧性之间的区别。一个能够高效处理巨大货运量的港口,对使用它的企业很有价值。但如果整个网络越来越依赖同一个枢纽,一旦这个枢纽受到干扰,影响就可能远远超出港口本身。自动化也可能改变劳动力需求、议价关系,以及较小港口的竞争能力。我们的项目考察的是这一可能的作用机制——资本密集型技术的采用、航线选择激励的变化、网络集中化,以及潜在的系统性风险暴露——而不是假定所有自动化必然产生同样的结果。我尤其想了解,如何区分真正的因果机制与恰好同时出现的相关现象。这个案例研究项目获得了金奖,并晋级下一阶段的比赛。它提出的更广泛问题对我仍然重要:效率收益何时会成为依赖的来源?公共政策又应如何权衡规模带来的好处与系统脆弱性的代价?

信息、公众信任与短视频平台

观察短视频平台对公共讨论日益增长的影响,让我产生了另一个问题。在中国,短视频已经成为人们接触新闻、健康相关说法、消费警示和政府政策解释的重要途径。信息传播的速度令人惊叹,但判断什么可靠也同样困难。我尤其关注这样的情形:商家或内容生产者出于商业利益而夸大食品安全风险;耸人听闻的说法比审慎的纠正更容易传播;而时间有限、或难以获得可靠解释的人,只能根据不完整的信息作出决策。我想理解的,不仅是内容失实的问题,也是信息不对称、激励与社会信任的问题。

我开始构思一个关于短视频时代的信息不对称、社会信任与公共沟通的研究项目,运用信号传递理论、公共选择理论的分析思路、成本收益分析和博弈论。其中一个问题是:当争议复杂或涉及政治敏感议题时,为什么官方机构有时会延迟回应,或使用模糊的表达?详细解释可能成本高昂、难以传达,也可能引发更多分歧。沉默在短期内看似成本更低,却可能让不确定性和不信任不断累积。我构想了一个包含公共机构、受众,以及误导性信息或经过策略性包装的信息生产者的模型;各方具有不同的激励,获得事实的机会也不平等。我也探讨了独立学者和专业领域专家是否能够用普通观众可以理解和运用的语言,帮助解释复杂政策,或评估存在争议的说法。

我尚未完成对这一框架的实证检验,也不会声称每一次延迟回应都证明背后存在刻意的策略,或每一种广泛传播的说法都是错误信息。这些区别很重要。未来的研究可以比较受众面对沉默、简短的官方否认、基于证据的解释,以及由独立专家作出的解释时,会有怎样不同的反应。研究还需要考虑:针对不同受众调整解释,究竟是在真正增进理解,还是可能操纵人们被允许理解的内容。我关注的是前者:在忠于同一组基本事实的前提下,让解释具有不同的深度和清晰程度。更广泛的经济学问题是,信任一旦受损,会如何改变消费者选择和治理成本。

公共财政与获得机会的条件

我对公共财政的兴趣有着更切身的缘由。在中国西北长大,我看到距离和专业服务的可及性不足,如何改变获得一次机会的成本。一个家庭可能付得起学费,却负担不起到学校所需的交通和住宿。医疗保险可能覆盖部分治疗费用,但交通、误工和难以预料的开销仍需家庭承担。一个农村家庭可能劳作了整整一个生长季,最后却因冰雹损失大部分收成。理解一场冲击的经济影响,不能只看平均成本。还要看这个家庭在冲击发生前有多少经济余地,能否通过借款或保险应对损失,以及当钱必须花在别处时,哪些机会会随之消失。

我想研究公共预算如何扩大人们真正获得教育与医疗服务的机会,尤其是农村家庭和欠发达地区的居民。在教育方面,我关心为高中阶段提供更有力公共支持的财政可行性,以及如何改善对职业教育和高等教育的资助。在医疗方面,我关注灾难性医疗支出、异地就医报销,以及资金投入、监管与患者保护之间的关系。医疗问责、知情同意、不良事件报告和赔偿等问题对我也很重要,因为评价一项政策,不能只看它名义上覆盖了多少人,还要看出现问题时,这些人会遭遇什么。

我还关注一种很难清楚列入家庭预算的成本:与家人相处的时间。外出务工、异地就业和轮班安排,可能迫使人们在挣钱与照顾父母、养育孩子,或在紧急情况下回家之间作出选择。因此,带薪照护假、可跨地区衔接的社会保障,以及跨地区获得服务等政策,其经济影响超出了工资统计。这些问题不能仅靠要求增加公共支出来解决。每项政策都有资金来源、机会成本、行政约束,以及可能出现的意外后果。我想理解,如何严谨地评估这些取舍,以及一项在总体上看似公平的政策,会如何影响资源条件差异很大的家庭。

课堂之外的经济学学习

在自主学习的同时,我在学校创办了一个商社,成员从两人发展到四十多人。我也与来自中国其他地区和海外的学生一起参加经济学竞赛。在美国经济学挑战赛中国区选拔赛中,我以 440/480 分获得个人金奖,并带领团队获得全国团队银奖。随后,我们的团队在 NEC 中国区总决赛中获得了 SUPER ECON! 区域综合团队荣誉。在国际经济学奥林匹克中国区选拔赛中,我获得了个人优异证书,团队则获得银奖,位列前 15%。这些经历让我有机会与思考方式不同的队友一起讨论、推敲经济模型,也让我更加意识到,课堂中的模型之外,还有多少值得理解的内容。

我的研究仍处于早期阶段。我独立学习了宏观经济学和微观经济学,通过案例研究探索经济机制,并开始提出关于公共财政、机构沟通和政策设计的问题。对于眼前的不平等,我还没有解决办法。我希望学习如何检验一个论点、衡量效果、区分因果与巧合,也希望正视那些我原本可能轻易支持的政策所带来的成本。数学教会我寻找问题背后的结构。经济学则让我明白,当问题涉及人时,理解结构只是开始。

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